Is Alberta hurtling toward the edge?

In this episode of On The Line, host Jen Gerson sits down with Jared Wesley and Ken Boessenkool, two members of the Lead Not Leave initiative, for a conversation about the current state of Alberta separatism and the province’s uncertain political future.

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While recent polling has suggested that support for outright separation may be softer than some headlines imply, neither Wesley nor Boessenkool is particularly sanguine about the outcome of the coming referendum campaign. They argue that low turnout and voter suppression could produce a result that overstates support for separatism, creating a misleading picture of where Albertans actually stand.

The discussion also examines the changing relationship between Alberta and Ottawa, and whether recent improvements between the provincial and federal governments have meaningfully reduced the political grievances that have fuelled separatist sentiment. They explore the concept of moral hazard in Canadian federalism, the incentives facing provincial leaders, and whether those dynamics are helping—or hurting—the cause of national unity.

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Finally, Gerson asks what happens after the vote. Whatever the result, will the United Conservative Party be able to hold together, or are the internal tensions that have defined Alberta conservatism for years becoming too great to contain?

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